Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion

Nils W. Metternich

Shahryar Minhas

Michael D. Ward

Journal of Conflict Resolution. Forthcoming.

While some borders are real firewalls against conflicts, others appear like tinder just waiting for the smallest spark. Only recently has research focused on the transnational perspective of conflict and current research has focused mostly on isolated aspects of this phenomenon. In this article, we provide a unified framework for conflict contagion that takes into account receiver, sender, dyad, and network effects. This is a novel perspective on conflict contagion, and our empirical results suggest that distinguishing between sender and receiver effects allows for a better understanding of spillover effects. We provide insights that especially excluded ethnic groups impact the risk of countries sending and receiving conflicts from its neighbors.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002715603452

DOI: 10.1177/0022002715603452

Metternich, Nils W., Shahryar Minhas, and Michael D. Ward. “Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Forthcoming.

@article{metternich2015firewall,
   Author = {Metternich, Nils W. and Minhas, Shahryar and Ward, Michael D.},
   Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution.},
   Volume = {Forthcoming},
   Publisher = {SAGE Publications},
   Title = {Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion},
   Year = {N.d.},
   abstract = {While some borders are real firewalls against conflicts, others appear like tinder just waiting for the smallest spark. Only recently has research focused on the transnational perspective of conflict and current research has focused mostly on isolated aspects of this phenomenon. In this article, we provide a unified framework for conflict contagion that takes into account receiver, sender, dyad, and network effects. This is a novel perspective on conflict contagion, and our empirical results suggest that distinguishing between sender and receiver effects allows for a better understanding of spillover effects. We provide insights that especially excluded ethnic groups impact the risk of countries sending and receiving conflicts from its neighbors.},
   doi = {10.1177/0022002715603452},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002715603452}
}